More Thoughts on Providence

On Thursday I mused:

However, there is several good reasons for NCDOT to stay and make a home in the region.

[...]

2) No serious competition. The big alliances don't really desire Providence so the chances are low anyone is going to kick you out for your space. They might kick you out for political reasons, but not for the space itself.

To which the esteemed Mord Fiddle of Fiddler's Edge commented:

What do they want? Provi, of course.

The "Nobody wants Provi" is pre-Dominion thinking. With system upgrades available, Provi is much more attractive than it was of old. Further, Nullsec space is needed to build Supercaps - the ultimate coin in New Eden.

Unless a wild card or two comes into play, I expect NCDOT and Evoke will carve up Provi between the two of them after the holidays.

CVA can no longer win the region by relying on the indifference of others. Providence is now valuable turf. If CVA wants it, they will have to become strong enough and clever enough take it and hold it from all comers.

And today on his own blog:

CVA, NC and Ev0ke have finished gobbling up all the "free" space in Providence. After the holidays I expect that party to begin in earnest as NC and Ev0ke attempt to take full control of the region. Kirith Kodachi over at Inner Sanctum of the Ninveah wonders how much of Providence space NC wants. My answer is "half', with the other half going to Ev0ke. The old conceit that no-one wants the wormy old Providence region is pre-Dominion thinking. With system upgrades available, Provi is much more attractive than it was of old. Further, Nullsec space is needed to build Supercaps - the ultimate coin in New Eden. Provi has value these days, and anyone who wishes to hold it will have to do so through strength of arms rather than indifference on the part of the competition.

First off, Mord Fiddle is far more in tune with New Eden politics and is better an analysis of the situation than I am and I have no reason to think he is wrong about the current scenario.

Now the root of my point 2 in my original post stems from the observation that since Against ALL Authorities eviction from Catch non of the large power blocs made a move against the New Provi Residents (now mostly ex-New Provi Residents) which suggested to me that the space might be too expensive for the quality therein, regardless of system upgrades. I thought that having a station in system made upkeep more expensive for the sov holder, but a quick check of the sovereignty mechanics via Evelopedia shows that outposts add nothing to the bill.

So in light of that, one can say that the major powers that have decided to make Providence their home is going to be NCDOT and Ev0ke, much like Mord has stated. Rumours have it that Important Internet Spaceship League have cut a deal with Ev0ke so along with Not Found. <404> and Ewoks they control over a third of Providence. It remains to be seen if NCDOT expands itself into the local constellations from the "LFA Pocket" or whether they bring in allies to occupy the space once evictions occur.

A third possibility is that Ev0ke Bloc and NCDOT are content with the space they currently occupy since there is a high number of stations and combined with upgradable space it can support a fair number of industrialists with relatively easy access to empire, and leave CVA, The Kadeshi, Chaos Theory, and Legio Astartes Arcanum alone as sort of a local "PvP preserve". Unfortunately that feels more like wishful thinking than an actual strategic possibility but weirder things have happened.

I would love to know what Ev0ke and NCDOT are planning, but in the end it matters very little to me and my allies. We're here to fight and advance when we can and retreat when we must.