Montolio Was Right

EDIT: I composed this post prior to getting news of Pandemic Legion and other alliances working with TEST to fight the goons in J5A. It remains to be seen if this is a "good fight" opportunity for PL or a strategic shift. 

This morning's post was going to be a rebuttal to Glevon Goblin's Eve News 24 post about how the Mitanni made a mistake and the CFC was thus doomed:

He now made a mistake. His first one within EVE (suicidegate was outside EVE). And probably his last one too. I believe this mistake will be his undoing.

But Corelin did a fine takedown of that ridiculous assertion that I have nothing to add to it.

I do, however, want to talk about TEST alliance for a minute.

Right and Wrong

Back in January I predicted that the Honey Badger Coalition (HBC) and the Cluster Fuck Coalition (CFC) would never go to war this year:

There has been several suggestions around the meta-community lately along the lines that a war between the Goon-led Cluster Fuck Coaltion (CFC) and the TEST-led Honey Badger Coalition (HBC) is brewing and practically inevitable this year. 

First off, let's define what we mean by "war". I'm not talking about a dust up over some moons, or a conflict between a few alliances that are parts of each coalition, or an exercise in war-games over a constellation or a region. We are talking about full scale sov war with the goal being the utter destruction of one side or the other, or at least pushing one side out of null sec sov holder status which usually precedes a breakup and a few alliance closures. Total war, if you will; an existential threat to both sides. 

And for CFC and HBC, that's not going to happen in 2013.

And I am totally correct so far and I'm confident to say that I'll remain correct for the rest of 2013. Unfortunately, I am correct for the wrong reasons and the spirit and base assumptions behind my prediction is wrong.

My prediction was based on this reasoning:

There are many reasons why I am making this prediction, but primarily it has to do with one simple fact: the core of each coalition, Goons and Test respectively, still like each other. Remember that Goons mentored the early Test pilots, giving them space to live and grow without the rough period of finding their feet in the wilds of null like a lot of nascent alliances must do. A Big Brother / Little Brother metaphor if you will. And although Test alliance has grown up and can stand on their own two feet for some time now, there is still a banked amount of goodwill between the leadership of these two alliances. As Goons/Test goes, so goes the majority of the alliance in their respective coalitions. 

On other words, they still like each other so war will be avoided. For now, 2013 at least I predict will be clear.

However the HBC collapsed. There is no other accurate word for it. It convulsed and came apart at the seams like a poorly made suit. Over the past six months hints have come out about why it collapsed and much of the blame can be laid at the feet of Pandemic Legion who were really only in the coalition for "good fights" and not sov level warfare, especially not sov level warfare that threatened the precious moons that line their pockets with copious amounts of ISK. Need to pay for all that fuel used in hot drops don't you know!

Seeing Montolio and much of TEST chomping at the bit for a sov level war with their partners in Technetium cartels, Pandemic Legion activated the Emergency Procedures and effectively neutered TEST right out of their control of their own coalition. Seeing they were no longer in control of their own destiny, TEST decided to bail and salvage some pride. Seeing the rambunctious little adopted brother exposed and mostly on their own (quite by design), CFC leadership moved in this past few weeks for the beat down lesson.

Real Challenge

Make no mistake: there are a lot of other easier regions CFC could have got new moons for their levies to support their infrastructure than Fountain. This is merely an excuse to deliver a backhand slap to TEST for the temerity to challenge big brother Goon. Only metagame-clueless morons like Glevon think differently.

And another mistake not to make: TEST is going to lose this war and lose it badly, if they haven't already. The only interesting part of the outcome is to see what happens after they lose the first real challenge to their sov level existence. Will they concede and come back under an understanding Goon paternal arm with their tails between their chastised legs? Will they take their beating and try to rebuild in low sec? Or will they, after finally facing a real challenge on their own and failing (and failing badly), break apart like the terrible coalition they built?

Interesting times.

Remember TEST, Montolio was right.