Fountain War: Prognosis

Last week I asked some questions and I got answers in comments, emails, EveNews24, podcasts and from just plain digging around. I admit my original questions were leading to suggest that this war between CFC and TEST was more of an arranged and controlled thunderdome and not a true unbridled war but I've heard enough to convince me that this war seems real. And I've come to a conclusion.

TEST is screwed.

Best Case Scenario

What is the best case scenario for TEST right now?
- Excellent participation rates
- ship reimbursement program humming along
- finances in good shape
- allies committed and coordinated
- enemies distracted by attacks from third parties

And where does reality diverge from this ideal?

Reality

- On the Crossing Zebras interview two Pandemic Legion head honchos deplored the state of TEST's participation numbers multiple times

- In the same interview, they commented how their fleets are not coordinating with TEST and Nulli and NCDOT fleets very closely compared to CFC fleets

- TEST made a big deal last week about being up to date on their ship reimbursement program, but rumours abound that private donors made contributions to make up the shortfall of 40 billion ISK. More rumours and insinuations can be found everywhere that TEST's finances are in shambles

- Pandemic Legion has admitted publicly to having one foot out of the door on this war already. They like the fighting but if things start to fall apart or stop being fun they will simply back out and go find something else to do.

- Nulli has been distracted and pulled away by the disbanding of their renter alliance and a resurging SOLAR Fleet alliance. People with tin foil hats might point out that Goons have traditionally had good relations with Russian alliances and that a contribution to SOLAR's war chest from CFC coffers would make a lot of sense

- CFC were having problems with Black Legion and friends in the north, so paid them off to stop attacking so as they were free to concentrate on Fountain

As you can see, while things are not absolute worst case scenario, they are far from the best case. If I were TEST leadership, I'd be thinking about my exit strategy at this point before this war grinds your alliance apart. Losing a major war does not have to be a death knell for an alliance, but it can be.