Over at Fiddler's Edge, Mord Fiddle wrote me my very own post called The Perils of Prognostication in response to my Fountain War: Prognosis post earlier this week. Honestly, I'm flattered by the attention as I love Mord's blog and his writing style. I was very excited to get my own post.
His main opposition to my post seems to center around the Crossing Zebra's post I referenced in which two Pandemic Legion pilots and Xander spends a considerable amount of verbage decrying the participation rates and organization of TEST alliance. Mord's position seems to be that Xander, being part of the CFC, and Pandemic Legion, being not really part of the effort against the CFC, are giving a slanted pro-CFC point of view. Thus resting my opinion on this source is like building a Sand Castle on a beach: one good wave of reality and it falls apart.
However, my "prognosis" was built on a lot more than that one interview. Pilot balance issues between the CFC and TEST fleets have been brought up in several venues, including the podcast Cap Stable which is run by TEST pilots. Reports on the news websites and blogs also indicate similar trends.
But I based most of my prognosis on past experiences. Back when I was in null sec I was in a few winning and losing major wars. I know what holding the line feels and sounds like, and I know what collapsing house of cards feels and sounds like too. And at the end of the day, my gut leans more towards the latter than the former.
Now, by all admission I am no null sec expert commentator (its more of a hobby) but I'm sticking to my guns on this one for the reasons I gave in my original post: TEST is on track to lose this war.
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As a side note, I think Mord insinuated in a comment yesterday on my Project Vulcan update that I might be shilling my blog as a propaganda piece for the CFC for rights to build capitals in their sov space. I'm honoured he thinks I might be that devious. :)
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Oh, piffle.
ReplyDeleteIn my post I held that you're premature in declaring Test the losers in the conflict. I gave reasons in my post as to why this is the case, walking a point by point through your supporting rationale. I note you've not rebutted a single one of my arguments here.
Despite Xander's hyperbolic reaction, my post was not about his podcast, 'Crossing Zebras'. I only mention 'Crossing Zebra' in passing as it is the sole source you reference by name in your original piece and, as a party engaged in the conflict they are, by any reasonable definition, a suspect source. If XZ hadn't been a stand-alone reference in your original post, I wouldn't have mentioned it at all.
As to my comment on your web-site yesterday, I think you've been dipping into the tin-foil.
I did not "insinuate" a comment into your post about building your first Orca. Recalling you tend to work out of low-sec and having forgotten where the break-point is between building capitals in station and needing a CSAA, I asked an honest question. I will seek knowledge elsewhere in the future if you found that troublesome.
As to Fountain, we'll see. If you're right and it's all over but the tears, Fountain will fall in a few weeks. In that case I'll have to acknowledge that your crystal ball was clearer than mine. If, on the other hand, I'm right and this is going to be a knock down drag out, I'll be back in a month to serve you a pot of braised crow in a red wine reduction by way of reminding you that you were a bit hasty in your judgement.
"I did not "insinuate" a comment into your post about building your first Orca. Recalling you tend to work out of low-sec and having forgotten where the break-point is between building capitals in station and needing a CSAA, I asked an honest question. I will seek knowledge elsewhere in the future if you found that troublesome."
DeleteLOL I didn't find it troublesome, it just read as you were implying something. No offence intended.
Hey, looks like crow is off the menu... at least for Kirith!
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