Fear and Loathing in Los Crius

Over at The Nosy Gamer blog the author was talking about how he was going to stick it out in Low Sec with his industrial adventures despite the upcoming changes in Crius expansion tomorrow:

I seriously considered moving back to high sec. Quite frankly, with the changes coming tomorrow, staying in low sec is pretty stupid. But a low sec base is more convenient for my faction ammunition business. Most of the cost of that is the time I take acquiring loyalty points, not manufacturing.

With all of the tears flowing from high sec, I figure I'll do something really stupid. That's right, I'm going to double-down on low. Can a casual industrialist not only survive, but thrive, in low sec operating against the high sec industrialists and all of the advantages they'll enjoy once Crius goes live. The only way to really know is to try, right?

I admit I have not delved seriously into the Crius changes on Sisi prefering to simply evaluate them once they hit Tranquility and how they will impact my casual capital building enterprise. So I commented:

I'm with you Noisy! I'm going to continue to operate my small cap building venture in low sec and we'll see how much things change for me.

Casual Low Sec Producers Unite!

To which a commenter self-identifying as the infamous Dinsdale responded:

Umm...you might want to get onto Singularity and have a good hard look at your "small cap building venture".
I am on Sisi, right now, with my Archon BPO, looking at all the combinations and permutations, and calculating the disastrous changes to the "casual low sec producer".

I used to build Archons, Thannies, and Moros in Carrou, one jump from high sec. It will be utterly impossible to compete with the big boys starting tomorrow. The wastage on a 1 run job is insurmountable compared to a 3 run job, and that is BEFORE the use of the teams, which will be used by null sec, not low sec.
And BTW, high sec is even more screwed than anyone else, regardless of what Noisy thinks.
regards,
Dinsdale

Am I worried? Yeah, I have concerns and I will be documenting here how much hit my margins take after tomorrow. So on Crius Eve, let's record the numbers of the old way of doing things.

The main cost for me right now is raw materials. Here is my chart of mineral requirements:

Click for full size.

Crius is going to change those numbers, probably upwards. The second change of Crius is that the charge for using factories will probably no longer be insignificant digits compared to the materials.

Stay tuned.