I was preparing to write a long post about the current World War Bee and the possible outcomes, but that freaking robo-blogger Ripard Teg came out of retirement and wrote a two parter on Crossing Zebras covering the same ground as I was going to only far more eloquently and better.
Die in a fire (in game), Ripard. ;)
This is must-read material: Part One - Bee Careful What You Wish For and Part Two - Bee Prepared
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I actually did write it, or at least 3/4 of it. Then trashed it all and wrote a stupid fairy tale version instead. Bastard gets us even from beyond the grave. Ripard Zombie!!!
ReplyDeleteYou could speculate on what the most likely outcome is, though. For my money I think the Imperium are hoping the attackers will implode. They're avoiding fights, trying to preserve ships and resources and hoping the attackers won't settle in the systems, so they can recapture lost territory and claim slippery-suds-ninja victory.
ReplyDeleteFeasible?
I'm not convinced.
DeleteThe 'outlast them' strategy works when they can do nothing to you, and you can do damage, even a little, to them.
Here, 'the enemy' is making progress consistently, despite what Sion and The Mittani say. Until they can enforce a stalemate, the likelihood of implosion is low.
If the MBC starts losing sov contests where they show up, then I'll start getting worried. Right now, the thing working most of the CFC is passive regen.
No, Brian Smith is closer to the crux of the situation. Most large fleet contests have been lost by the CFC - throwing more expensive Machariel fleets at the problem is... well the definition of insanity. ;-)
DeleteWhere I disagree with him is the "hoping attackers will implode" part. Not sure this will happen or is even desired by the CFC. Some MBC members to run out of steam and a shot at matching numbers for some timers? Maybe.
They are losing systems yes, but really the CFC had too much territory to defend. As the territory contracts that problem contracts. In addition if/when someone else takes sov that burden of defence shifts to the other side - a swing of two points so to speak.
Given this reality, I don't think the CFC is necessarily looking to reclaim all or even most lost systems. As such the MBC is now fighting over territory what has effectively been conceded by the CFC already...
As the MBC waste time on the entosising tribute the reality of the time based defence kicks in - a time where the attackers have to be active and maybe burn themselves out a bit - fighting the passive regen... (maybe)
What this boils down to is that Jesters option 3 is in reality the only scenario that can realistically play out. Even if the CFC has to abandon all sov and say stage out of Saranen for a while - they will survive and thrive. Maybe smaller and leaner, but meaner...
As such the only existential threat to the CFC and goons remain the distasteful rhetoric of Sion and mittens themselves.