Way back when I was a null sec pilot I had a little back of the envelope calculation I used to determine if an alliance was performing its PvP duties appropriately. Basically I'd look at the alliance membership count, divide it in two (assuming it was a roughly equal US/Europe membership split), divide it in two again to discount alt characters, and then take 25% of that resulting number with the idea that only about 1 in 4 pilots will be logged in ready to go in a PvP ship on any given night.
So an alliance of about 2000 pilots should easily get a fleet of 100 pilots together in an organized fleet if there is something that needs fighting. If there is no specific threat then 50 pilots is OK, and a CTA should double that into the 200 pilots area.
So my question is: where are the goons?
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I admit I'm not participating in this war even indirectly but I've watched the news and listened to podcasts and one thing that jumps out at me is that I hear about Co2's 300 man fleet in the battle of UMI and I heard about FCON's 500 man fleet in the defence of their home but I've yet to hear of Goonswarm throwing up fleets of any size that they should be capable of. I'd expect to see fleets of 1000-2000 goons swarming the battlezones at minimum in defence of their empire, but they've seemed to be phoning it in so to speak.
Am I wrong? Are the fleets out there but just operating separately so not seeming as obvious? Or is the alliance bloated with dead bodies?
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Here they were in March:
ReplyDeletehttps://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ZKQtrSr4IBs/VwOEupweu7I/AAAAAAAALQ8/iM6M29Ft2Z4DAOXD4_vzLDLR9C1Gw7q0wCCo/s800-Ic42/ratdek.png
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-sWchPCfdvPM/VwA5TdmRV-I/AAAAAAAALQE/P0gmZszFe_8o50C7LuCTZmTiJTdtII76wCCo/s800-Ic42/gsf2016.png
I guess now they are somewhere where they can do what they do.
Perhaps they are just focusing a bit too much on keeping their indexes's up to keep their vulnerability window as small as possible...
DeleteYou're not wrong. We're seeing 2-3 fleets of 30-90 out max.
ReplyDeleteI think they're playing other games, planning to come back when the heat has died down a bit.
The few who are active are contesting sov conquest, it's normal to be disrupted by at least one gang while entosising a target.
They are busy mining and doing PI, in order to be the first to build the Palatine, for New Jita.
ReplyDeleteAfter all, if you own the New Jita Palatine, you don't need null sov.
If goons loose their nullsec holdings, they will disband the alliance.
ReplyDeleteI've talked to two goon FCs (mid level, exactly what you'd want for entosis fleets) and they are both unsubbed "until the war is over". Both are proud of doing so, it's really really odd.
ReplyDeleteI've mentioned this on /r/eve in a reply to a goon that had offered a similar response, WOPR from the film War Games: "The only winning strategy is not to play".
DeleteEssentially goons are, at best, offering only token resistance, whilst they concentrate on evac'ing assets to low sec & Syndicate, if playing at all. They left any true defence attempts to their ~valued allies~.